A couple of months ago, a Gen X friend who is a staunch Bernie Sanders supporter lamented the centrist Democrats who complain about Sanders yelling all the time. “These complainers,” he commented, “are just outing themselves as people who’ve never known a Jew from Brooklyn.” Now as a Jew from the Midwest with family ties to NYC, I questioned his assertion. But the larger point was that to him, Sanders was channeling a righteous anger at the corrupt state of the world. As podcaster Paul Rieckhoff said, “if you’re not angry, you’re not paying attention.” My friend was right.
Another friend, a Baby Boomer, told me that he was supporting Joe Biden. He commented on Biden’s long history in government, his experience working across the aisle, and his affable personality. “Frankly,” he said, “I’m tired of feeling angry all the time. I feel comfortable with Joe.” He was right too.
No matter what rational or intellectual criteria we voters believe we are using to weigh each candidate's strengths and weaknesses, in truth, we apply our own non-intellectual determinants. Perhaps we lean toward the candidate that makes us feel angry or comfortable or hopeful. Perhaps we tilt toward the candidate we see as most radical or most practical. Perhaps we favor a white male septuagenarian or a female woman of color or a gay veteran millennial because we are convinced that particular person is the most “electable.” And since each determinant carries a different weight, it is near impossible to compare and contrast each candidate’s personality, experience, temperament, and policy on any standard scale.
Until now.
The best paradigm for classifying and codifying candidates comes from a model developed nearly half a century ago. I am speaking, of course, of Dungeons and Dragons.
D&D, the grandfather of fantasy roll-playing games, was created by Gary Gygax and Dave Arneson 45 years ago and is now a billion dollar industry worldwide. Although D&D gained an unfair reputation as an enterprise glorified by socially awkward nerds overloading on junk food in their parent’s basement (as best illustrated by Stranger Things), in fact, the game is played by millions of people worldwide. In fact, the hottest game of D&D in Los Angeles is hosted by actor Joe Mangiello, a man who himself appears to be the result of a particularly lucky roll of the character dice. (“Your barbarian approaches a castle. In front is a beautiful Columbian actress. What do you do?” “I marry her, you losers, and tell you all to SUCK IT!”).
Just like in a presidential election, D&D characters go on “campaigns.” Each character has experience points, a Class (e.g. Wizard, Sorcerer, Druid, Rogue, etc.), an Alignment (Chaotic Good, Neutral Good, Lawful Evil, etc.), and Abilities: Strength (physical power), Dexterity (agility), Constitution (endurance), Intelligence (reasoning and memory), Wisdom (perception and insight), and Charisma (force of personality). The Abilities are determined stochastically, typically by rolling five six-sided dice, removing the highest and lowest roll, and adding the remaining three dice to create a value between three and eighteen.
What a beautiful way to capture a candidate’s strengths, weaknesses, personality quirks, and experience. In fact, I don't know why career advisors haven't switched to D&D attributes instead of Myers-Briggs personality assessments and questionable aptitude tests. Just imagine the conversations at the Department of Workforce Development. "Well, you have high Charisma, Dexterity, and Intelligence, but low Strength. I recommend a career in sales or marketing, or perhaps roguish thievery."
OK, I realize this is all a gross over-simplification, but for now, please just go with it.
In fact, I posit that these abilities could be redefined as “political” abilities, and each ability would comprise three determinants each worth six points. Each determinant stands in for a roll of the six-sided dice. For example:
- Strength is “Political Strength” and comprises 1) political funds raised year to date, 2) name recognition, 3) endorsements, each normalized to a 6-point scale.
- Dexterity comprises 1) political savvy, 2) flexibility, and 3) communication skills.
- Constitution comprises 1) total number of days campaigning in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, 2) Honesty, 3) and Invulnerability to political attack.
- Intelligence comprises 1) Formal education, 2) Perceived mental acuity, 3) and debate performance.
- Wisdom comprises 1) empathy, 2) executive experience, 3) and overall breadth of elected experience.
- Charisma comprises 1) motivation/manipulation, 2) eloquence, and 3) likeability.
I ran this experiment with the top five polling candidates: Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris. Scores were calculated based on external polls, published data, and, only when necessary, my own perceptions of each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses.
The advantage of this model is that candidate characteristics and personalities can be separated from their policies. In fact, policies are no longer endemic to the character of the candidate but are rather viewed as “spells” and given a maximum strength score of nine, just like in D&D. The strength of a spell is the product of the Degree of Change from the status quo (1= not change, 3 = major change) multiplied by the Level of Detail of the plan (1 = broad strokes, 3 = full details for funding). For example, a radical healthcare plan with a high level of detail on how to fund it might be a Level 9 Medicare For All spell, whereas a moderately funded climate change policy with little detail might simply be a Level 4 Clean Energy Revolution spell.
The results are interesting to say the least. Joe Biden, with his ability scores of S(15), D(14), C(12), I(13), W(15), C(13) leads the field in Strength due to his name recognition and endorsements but lags in Constitution due to the least number of days campaigning. Warren, with scores of S(13), D(14), C(17), I(15), W(8), C(15) leads the pack in Constitution but lags in Wisdom due to a lack of executive and general government experience. Buttigieg leads in Intelligence and shares top spots with Harris on Dexterity. Sanders is an overall balanced candidate; he doesn’t lead on any particular attribute but doesn’t lag in any either.
I investigated the healthcare and climate change plans (spells) as well. Not surprisingly, Warren leads the pack with a powerful Medicare for All spell (9) and six distinct climate change spells. Biden lags with a few relatively weak healthcare and climate change spells.
Now some may question my subjective analyses, and if so, they are welcome to recalculate and effectively “re-roll the dice.” However, the important lesson here is that no matter how strong your character, no matter how potent your spell, in the end, it will be the skillful application of ability, experience, circumstance, and occasionally luck that determines a successful campaign. A good supply of chips and soda couldn’t hurt either.
No comments:
Post a Comment